Ohio State vs. Alabama: Inside the race for the No. 1 recruiting class in 2021 (2024)

The pendulum swung back toward Tuscaloosa on Tuesday.

Robbie Ouzts, the nation’s No. 27 tight end and a three-star prospect out of Rock Hill, S.C., announced his commitment to Alabama shortly after noon. He’s the lowest-rated player in the Crimson Tide’s 2021 recruiting class, a pledge who doesn’t come with much fanfare. But it was still enough to elevate Alabama to No. 1 in the 247Sports class composite rankings, as the Tide and Ohio State swapped the top spot for the third time in the last two weeks.

That development could have given Devonta Smith some fodder for a bit of playful trash talk to Jaylen Johnson, his teammate at Cincinnati La Salle High School. But Johnson, an Ohio State commit, didn’t hear a word from Smith, who’s headed to Alabama.

“We don’t talk about it,” Johnson said Tuesday evening. “We just talk about if we’re gonna see each other in the College Football Playoff, and who would win. It doesn’t matter if you have the No. 1 class or not. It matters what you do on the field.”

True. Although accumulating talent and winning national championships are inextricably linked, making that type of distinction between the classes Ohio State and Alabama are assembling would be the ultimate form of splitting hairs. Both schools are loading up on elite prospects.

Nick Saban has nine recruiting titles in the last 11 years, but the Buckeyes have yet to pull off such a feat. Not under Urban Meyer. Not in the first two classes of the Ryan Day era. In this cycle, however, they’re well-positioned to finally finish with the No. 1 recruiting class.

While Ohio State waits to see if it might get a chance to compete for a championship on the field this fall, we at least know the competition for the recruiting crown is going to provide a thrilling finish. That likely doesn’t bring any kind of consolation for Buckeyes fans, but there is something to be said for weathering the Big Ten’s decision to postpone the season and emerging with the best recruiting class. Furthermore, finishing No. 1 would be the ultimate sign Ohio State’s recruiting was never at risk of suffering as Day succeeded Meyer.

Let’s dig in and see what needs to happen to finish it off.

How close is the race?

Alabama is back in front after Ouzts’ commitment. The Tide have a total class score of 303.04 based on the composite ratings and an average player rating of .9385 with 21 total commitments.

Ohio State’s player average is higher, and many consider that to be the more important metric. Quality versus quantity, and all that. The Buckeyes have an average rating of .9463, which, if it held, would be the highest of the modern recruiting era (about two decades), topping the mark OSU set in 2018. But the total score is what ultimately gets the crown, and OSU’s is No. 2 right now at 302.20 with 19 commitments.

It’s noteworthy the Buckeyes are within one point with two fewer commitments than Alabama and that their player average is higher. That’s what’s going to make for an exciting race to the finish.

Any other programs to worry about?

Don’t count out LSU, Clemson or Georgia. But at the moment, LSU is No. 3 in the class rankings with 18 commitments and trails Ohio State by more than 30 total points. To further put that into context, the Tigers could add the No. 1 player in the country, defensive end Korey Foreman, and still trail the Buckeyes by 20 points in the class rankings.

Those three programs are lurking but have some real work to do to close the gap.

Which player should we be paying the most attention to?

J.T. Tuimoloau has long been the top prospect on Ohio State’s board. He’s the No. 2 player in the class, a defensive end with elite size (6-foot-5 and 280 pounds) and strength, a sophisticated pass-rush toolbox and rare athleticism for someone his size.

“He’s one of those people that regardless of the task you put in front of him, he’s gonna be decent,” said Dom Daste, Tuimoloau’s head coach at Eastside Catholic High School in Sammamish, Wash. “He could play ping pong and just be good at it, or if he picked up a golf club.”

Two summers ago, Daste took his team to a camp at Boise State. To break up the long drive, they stopped and bowled for a few hours. Tuimoloau said he had never bowled before. Daste said he then watched his star player throw a 270. Did that actually happen? It could be the kind of tall-tale embellishment that comes with a star such as Tuimoloau. But he’s earned the benefit of the doubt.

“He has great hand-eye coordination and body control,” Daste said. “He has Division I basketball offers. He can probably go out and throw the shot put or javelin and receive attention from colleges doing that.”

And he’s pretty good at football.

So Ohio State isn’t the only school in hot pursuit.

Alabama is extremely interested as well.

Tuimoloau’s recruitment should bring plenty of suspense. In addition to being a top-flight talent, Tuimoloau is said to be measured and somewhat reserved. His Twitter account is private. His Instagram page has only a handful of postings, none to do with recruiting. He’s not out there in a way that makes his lean apparent — if he has one at all — but there’s increasing chatter about Alabama becoming more of a player in his recruitment. The Tide have perhaps some advantage, as they’ve actually had Tuimoloau on campus. He’s been to nearby Washington, Oregon, USC and Alabama. He’s yet to visit Ohio State, Michigan and Oklahoma, three other schools reportedly in the mix.

Yet if the 247Sports crystal ball projections are to be believed, the Buckeyes have managed to hold the top spot in Tuimoloau’s recruitment despite his location (about 2,400 miles from Columbus) and the lack of recruiting visits due to COVID-19 restrictions. It helps that OSU has some familiarity with Eastside Catholic, having recruited freshman wide receiver Gee Scott Jr. out of the school as part of the Class of 2020. But defensive line coach Larry Johnson has also done a good job of keeping Ohio State front of mind despite the physical disconnect.

“Coach Johnson has done a great job,” Daste said. “You look at his track record, the person he is, and he’s done a great job of conveying that while being genuine and honest with J.T. That’s naturally who they are. They’re not putting on a show. Ohio State has done a great job conveying their message in the virtual world. Some of that is just having real conversations on the phone and not being, for lack of a better term, used-car salesmen.”

But Tuimoloau has given no public inclination of which way he might be leaning. And while he’ll have the ability to graduate high school early and enroll in college in January, the thought right now is he’ll play his senior season (which was pushed back to March) and make his decision later in the cycle, perhaps even after his season starts. It’s still an open race that could drag on a few more months, a race that now includes Alabama as a real player.

“How could they not be?” Daste said.

In the race for No. 1, it could be as simple as Tuimoloau being the player who swings the final standings.

OK, but who else is out there?

Roster math is hard to figure, especially as it becomes increasingly difficult to know when or if Ohio State will play before fall 2021. Alabama is playing, and if it finishes the season, it should have normal roster turnover even with every player receiving an extra year of eligibility regardless of how many games he plays.

It stands to reason Alabama will sign more players than Ohio State.

The Tide have averaged 25.5 signees in the last four recruiting classes. The Buckeyes have averaged 22.3 and could likely end up with fewer than 25 again this year.

Outside of Tuimoloau, Ohio State’s top remaining targets are five-star wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, five-star offensive tackle Tristan Leigh, four-star LSU linebacker commit Raesjon Davis, four-star safety Derrick Davis, four-star Florida defensive end commit Justus Boone and some lower-rated offensive linemen.

Alabama has a few more names on the board. Some of the notable ones outside of Tuimolau include five-star cornerback Ga’Quincy McKinstry, five-star offensive tackle Amarius Mims, five-star defensive end Tunmise Adeleye, four-star wide receiver Brian Thomas, four-star safety Terrion Arnold and four-star linebacker Xavian Sorey.

To track the race, track those names.

Tuimoloau appears to be the only elite prospect who is being pursued by both schools, but it should be noted the Tide have bolstered their class with a couple of players who once appeared to be locks for the Buckeyes.

Smith, Johnson’s teammate at La Salle, was once in Ohio State’s class. He decommitted and flipped to Alabama a few days later. Ohio State filled that spot with four-star cornerback Jordan Hanco*ck, a net gain in the rankings race. Alabama landed J.C. Latham, a five-star offensive tackle once considered a heavy Ohio State lean. Adeleye decommitted from Ohio State’s class in early August. Alabama, Florida and Texas A&M are potential landing spots for him.

How does this end?

Let’s turn to the handy 247Sports class calculator.

If the Buckeyes add their top two targets, Tuimoloau and Egbuka, that takes them to a score of 316.31. Leigh seems like a long shot, with LSU and Oklahoma leading that race. Flipping Davis from LSU would be tough. And Malone could be steered him away from Ohio State due to his desire to also play baseball in college. But for the sake of argument, let’s give OSU all of those players and a real dream class. That’s a score of 327.58, which would beat the previous record of 324.62 set by Florida’s 2010 class, which included 28 signees.

That’s an unlikely outcome but underscores just how good Ohio State’s class is already.

A more realistic projection would be Tuimoloau, Egbuka, Malone and a three-star in-state offensive lineman such as Massillon tackle Terrence Rankl (currently a Pitt commitment). Maybe the Buckeyes end up with room to add a second tight end and offer in-state Jack Pugh, a Wisconsin commit. That would give OSU 24 commitments and a score of 321.81, the program’s best yet, but it would also include the Buckeyes missing on some key remaining targets.

Alabama would need to add McKinstry, Mims, Adeleye, Thomas, Arnold and Sorey to top that. Not impossible, but that would be a hell of a finish.

The Tide have wild cards at play, including Mims (with Georgia projected as a heavy favorite), Foreman (the No. 1 prospect who’s getting a bit of Clemson and Georgia buzz), five-star defensive tackle Maason Smith (a heavy LSU lean) and five-star running back Camar Wheaton (projected to Oklahoma). If Alabama lands any of them, the calculus changes considerably.

But provided Ohio State lands Egbuka and Tuimoloau, it should remain in a solid position to finish with the No. 1 class in 2021.

(Top photo of J.T. Tuimoloau: Brian Bodine / Bodine Sports Photography)