• A top-five wide receiver is likely to fall: With three running backs typically getting selected among the top six picks, there should be at least two elite wide receivers available in this range.
• It’s not too early to pick a quarterback in Round 3: Round 2 quarterbacks were league winners last year, and Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts fit that description again this year but can be drafted a round later.
• Get a head start on fantasy football: Use PFF's fantasy football mock draft simulator to create real live mock draft simulations to get ready for your live draft!
Estimated reading time: 14 minutes
The perfect draft series combines current ADPs from expert and casual drafts to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information. This draft is designed for 12-team PPR leagues for anyone picking seventh, eighth or ninth. The perfect draft series takes current ADPs from expert and casual drafts combined to see who should be available at each pick and make the best picks given that information.
Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Thursday, August 15
Round 1, Picks 7-9: Draft a wide receiver
By consensus ADP, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are both top-six selections, which is a little too high when Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson are available. They are much safer bets in the first round. Even if the top five wide receivers are gone, picking A.J. Brown is a relatively safe pick in this range.
Top Target: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Player Profile)
In 2022, St. Brown posted excellent numbers in every statistic aside from routes run per game, but the Detroit Lions fixed that in 2023 by keeping him on the field more often. This led to more routes per game and more production in general. He was also targeted in the red zone more frequently, a significant reason why he recorded double-digit touchdowns for the first time. St. Brown deserves to get picked in the top half of the first round of PPR drafts. The Lions' run-first offense and Jared Goff’s aversion to deep passes might prevent St. Brown from being in the overall WR1 conversation, but an argument can be made that the Lions receiver is the safest pick in fantasy drafts this year.
Possible Targets: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
Round 2, Picks 16-18: Draft a wide receiver or running back
This was the prime pick for a quarterback in the past, but Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts‘ ADPs have fallen to a point where running back or wide receiver can be the focus. For the most part, running backs provide the most value here, as all of the proven and high-upside wide receivers will be off the table.
Top Target: Kyren Williams (Player Profile)
Williams scored the second-most fantasy points per game by a running back with a clear three-point lead over everyone else who wasn’t Christian McCaffrey. Part of that was due to a 90.5 run grade that ranked third-most among those with 50 or more carries. He also played at least 77% of the Los Angeles Rams‘ offensive snaps in all but three games and at least 94% of their snaps in four games. Chances are Blake Corum will cut into his playing time a little bit to keep Williams well-rested, but he should remain the feature back for the Rams.
Possible Targets: Davante Adams, Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, Chris Olave, De'Von Achane
Round 3, Picks 31-33: Draft a quarterback or wide receiver
Last season, the perfect second-round pick was often a quarterback. Patrick Mahomes‘ ADP was a bit high, but either Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen was typically the best pick. Those two quarterbacks were the quarterbacks most frequently on ESPN championship game teams last season. While Hurts lost Jason Kelce and Allen lost Stefon Diggs, they are both still worthy of second-round picks.
Allen and Hurts' ADP varies significantly from one site to another, as they often fall to the mid-to-late third round on some sites. Depending on the site, you could play it safe and pick them early in the second round and wait one more round for a running back.
Top Target: Jalen Hurts
Hurts has averaged at least 21.0 fantasy points per start in every season of his career. While his tush push touchdowns have certainly helped his fantasy value, he’s one of just four quarterbacks with at least 2,200 rushing yards over the last three seasons while no one else is above 1,300. Considering one of those four is a backup and the other two are at an age where we stop seeing as much rushing production from quarterbacks, Hurts could be the best rushing quarterback this season. He is also surrounded by a top-three receiving corp and offensive line so even if his rushing touchdown total recedes, his fantasy production should remain high.
Possible Targets: Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, D.K. Metcalf, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson
Round 4, Picks 40-42: Draft a quarterback or running back
This is the last opportunity to draft a clear-cut starting running back. This running back tier is valuable if everything goes according to plan but a lot can go wrong. All six backs available at this point have averaged at least 14.5 PPR points per game over a significant stretch during the last two seasons, but most of the teams these running backs played for have invested a significant draft pick on another running back. Enough has been invested in these six that they are unlikely to completely disappear even if they lose playing time. This is also time to pick a quarterback if Hurts didn’t fall to you in the third round with Lamar Jackson as a fine fallback option.
Top Target: James Cook (Player Profile)
Cook showed he could be a versatile runner in his second season, playing well on gap or zone plays while playing particularly well even when plays weren’t perfectly blocked or he was facing an eight-man box. He’s been particularly good at consistently breaking longer runs. Once Ken Dorsey was fired and Joe Brady took over as the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator, Cook touched the ball much more often. His opportunities should remain high after the losses at receiver and veteran backup running backs.
Possible Targets: Joe Mixon, Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker III
Round 5, Picks 55-57: Draft a tight end
The start of Round 5 is a sweet spot for adding a star tight end, which is why that position was ignored at the end of Round 2. The top tight ends available at this spot have either finished as top-six fantasy tight ends each of the last two seasons with the same quarterback and offensive play-caller or are a young tight end with a great opportunity to have a career year.
Top Target: Kyle Pitts (Player Profile)
Pitts is a very talented tight end who has consistently underperformed in fantasy football. His 82.4 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons is the fifth-best among tight ends, behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Pitts' utilization has been a major problem. Last season, he played over 75% of his team's offensive snaps in only two games, with a 64% median. Zac Robinson will now orchestrate the Atlanta Falcons offense, which is a big reason for optimism regarding Pitts' role this season. He’s expected to stay on the field and see a higher target rate.
Everything points to Pitts putting up better numbers this season if he can stay healthy. There is some uncertainty with the new offensive play-caller, new quarterback, and the limited sample size of tight ends as young as Pitts entering their fourth season. Pitts should be a clear fantasy starter this season, but he will need to find the red zone more often to break into the top five or higher. If everything goes right, he has the potential to be the overall TE1.
Possible Targets: George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram, Brock Bowers, David Njoku
Round 6, Picks 64-66: Draft a wide receiver
This decision is easy because your starting lineup is in good shape outside of wide receiver. Luckily, several wide receivers are either their team's clear top option or a proven second option that’s in a new situation this year.
Top Target: Terry McLaurin (Player Profile)
McLaurin is the perfect example of a good, dependable wide receiver. He hasn’t missed a game over the last three seasons after missing just three games in his first two. He’s caught at least 77 passes and racked up 1,000-plus yards in each of the last four years. Even though the Washington Commanders have gone through a lot of changes this offseason, we can expect a lot more of the same for McLaurin.
Possible Targets: Rashee Rice, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley
Round 7, Picks 79-81: Draft a running back or wide receiver
With a top-six quarterback and tight end secured, the next several picks will be some combination of running back and wide receiver. When you have a top-six quarterback or tight end, you’re not benching them because a backup has a better matchup. That means a backup is only necessary in case of injury, so you can draft more running backs and wide receivers, allowing you to make lineup decisions based on matchups and who breaks out.
In this case, a wide receiver is best to pick because several proven players are in new situations this year. Ideally, the new situation allows them to outperform their ADP. If it doesn’t, then hopefully one of the several sleeper wide receivers picked later ends up breaking out.
Top Target: Rashee Rice (Player Profile)
Rice finished as WR27 and was a top-36 wide receiver in nearly 70% of his games despite playing less than 70% of his team's offensive snaps in all but four games. By Week 14, he began receiving playing time comparable to a typical starting wide receiver, playing at least 75% of his team's offensive snaps from Weeks 14-17. During this period, he ranked eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers. In the playoffs, Rice played at least 75% of the Kansas City Chiefs‘ offensive snaps in three of four games, averaging 6.5 receptions for 65.5 yards per game against some of the NFL's best defenses.
If not for the potential suspension, he would be considered a top-10 wide receiver this season. Even if he is suspended for the first six games, his fantasy value would increase simply by knowing he would be available for the fantasy playoffs.
Possible Targets: Diontae Johnson, Hollywood Brown, Ladd McConkey, Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren
Round 8, Picks 88-90: Draft a running back or wide receiver
Typically, I lean running back in Round 8 with a few high-upside players available, but in this range, it’s the perfect chance to pick one of the very young wide receivers who was a high draft pick and has a lot of upside. While two of the wide receivers picked to this point should start every week, it’s possible the wide receivers available here could quickly turn into must-start players. If you would prefer, there are also solid running back options.
Top Target: Ladd McConkey (Player Profile)
McConkey is one of a few wide receivers picked in the late first or early second round who landed with an elite quarterback and a team that needed a wide receiver. Since Justin Herbert was drafted by the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett represented 60% or more of the Chargers receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. None of them are currently on the Chargers roster. They didn’t add any wide receivers in free agency. Hayden Hurst and J.K. Dobbins are the closest receiving replacements at tight end and running back.
McConkey joins Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, so he should be able to play in the slot and potentially lead the team in receiving. The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator in Greg Roman. His slot receivers have consistently played better and given more opportunities compared to the league average. This includes when he worked with Jim Harbaugh with the San Francisco 49ers a decade ago. Los Angeles might continue to look for upgrades at wide receiver in future seasons, but as long as McConkey remains their slot receiver, he should maintain his value.
Possible Targets: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Xavier Worthy, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams, Brian Robinson Jr.
Round 9, Picks 103-105: Draft a running back or wide receiver
In general, I would lean on picking a player at the opposite position of Round 8 for balance. Part of the decision depends on whether Chase Brown looks like he will be available depending on the site you’re playing on, as there is a clear gap between Brown and the rest of the running backs who could be available.
Top Target: Chase Brown
Brown is competing with Zack Moss for the Cincinnati Bengals‘ starting running back job. Throughout training camp, he’s received plenty of first-team looks and has shined throughout. During the first preseason game, he received opportunities on third-and-long — a situation he wasn’t involved with last season — so he has an opportunity to be much more involved in the passing game. He’s a gamble, but a solid one to make at this point in the draft.
Possible Targets: Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Ezekiel Elliott, Jerome Ford, Tyler Lockett
Round 10, Picks 112-114: Draft a running back
The next four rounds are mostly about picking your guys. If your favorite sleeper quarterback or tight end is available, it’s OK to pick them, but I’d lean toward stocking up on even more running backs and wide receivers. I lean toward picking a running back and wide receiver at each of the next two pairs of picks, picking whichever players are at the top of the board.
Top Target: Ezekiel Elliott (Player Profile)
The DallasCowboysrunning back depth chart consists of Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Royce Freeman and Deuce Vaughn. It’s unclear how snaps will get distributed among the running backs, but Elliott should at least see part of the rotation and serve as the goal-line back. In 2022, Elliott had a then career-low 231 carries and averaged 3.8 yards per carry but managed 12 touchdowns, leading to the 22nd-most fantasy points. Similar numbers are certainly possible. Chances are he will see fewer carries, but there is also a chance his production bounces back after a year with less wear and tear on his body.
Possible Targets: Jerome Ford, Zach Charbonnet, Blake Corum, Chuba Hubbard, Trey Benson
Round 11, Picks 127-129: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Jakobi Meyers
Meyers finished last season as WR24 thanks to 800 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He’s getting drafted much later than that because he’s the clear second option behind Davante Adams and the Las Vegas Raiders have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the league. The Raiders also drafted Brock Bowers in the first round, which could further push Meyers down the target ladder. The quarterback situation was arguably worse last season, and his ADP is much lower than his WR24 finish last season, making him a solid gamble late in drafts.
Possible Targets: Brandin Cooks, Romeo Doubs, Mike Williams, Rashid Shaheed, Joshua Palmer
Round 12, Picks 136-138: Draft a running back
Top Target: Chuba Hubbard (Player Profile)
Hubbard was used in a variety of situations over his first two seasons, and his role increased significantly for the 2023 season, playing at least 64% of his team's offensive snaps in each of his last seven games. He finished at least RB28 or better in each of those games including two weeks as a top-12 running back.
The Carolina Panthers added Jonathon Brooks in the draft as the first running back selected, but he is coming off a torn ACL. A few weeks ago, it was reported that Brooks still has a ways to go in his recovery and will likely be eased into training camp. Hubbard has a decent chance to be the starter at least early in the season, and the Panthers shouldn’t rush Brooks. Hubbard is a great gamble this late in the draft as someone capable of being a feature back.
Possible Targets: Tyler Allgeier, Rico Dowdle, Antonio Gibson, Ty Chandler, Jaleel McLaughlin
Round 13, Picks 151-153: Draft a wide receiver
Top Target: Jahan Dotson
Dotson was the Washington Commanders‘ primary slot receiver with the starters in their first preseason game while also playing on the outside in two receiver sets. This could be huge for his fantasy value. New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury was the Arizona Cardinals‘ head coach from 2019-2022. During that time, Cardinals wide receivers in the slot caught 434 passes — second-most. Most teams in the top five had one clear slot receiver during that time while the Cardinals had Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore.
Possible Targets: Darnell Mooney, Josh Downs, Demarcus Robinson, Ja'Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas
Round 14-18: Fill Depth
Use any additional picks to pick a kicker and team defense if your league plays with them and forces you to draft them. If not, stock up on more running backs and wide receivers.
