Reds numbers to watch: What 60 means for Billy Hamilton and 70 means for Adam Duvall (2024)

As a statistician, I can get a little obsessed with the numbers. As we lead up to Opening Day on Thursday, I’ll take a look at some of the numbers that stuck out to me for many of the key players on the Reds roster right now.

We focused on the infielders on Monday, so today we’ll look at the outfielders.

Billy Hamilton – 60

Injuries once again limited the number of games that Billy Hamilton played in September last year, but the Reds center fielder returned for the last week of the season. For those who like patterns, it’s a good thing he did.

Hamilton had 58 stolen bases on the season when he went on the disabled list with a fractured thumb on Sept. 7. That matched his career high and the same number he had in 2016.

However, when the speedster returned two weeks later, he was able to steal one more base. That set a new career high and continued his pattern of stealing one more base than the previous season, which he’s done each of the last three years. In 2014, Hamilton stole 56 bases, followed by 57 in 2015 and the aforementioned 58 and 59 in the last two seasons, respectively.

If Hamilton is able to steal 60 bases in 2018, not only will he be just the fifth Red in the modern era to reach that level and the first since Eric Davis stole 80 in 1986, but he’ll also create a unique group for himself. With 60 thefts, he’ll be the first player to steal double-digits in each of his first six seasons while also setting a new career high in each one of those seasons. As it stands right now, Hamilton shares the list of those to do it in their first five years with three other players in the modern era:

If you’re wondering, Hamilton’s 230 stolen bases over the last four seasons is only the sixth-highest total over four consecutive seasons by a Red. Bob Bescher tallied 272 thefts from 1909-1912, including the single-season franchise record of 81 in 1911. The most steals over five consecutive seasons is 310, done by both Bescher and Joe Morgan (1972-76). For Hamilton to top that total, he’d need to match or break Bescher’s single-season record, which seems unlikely, but not unreachable if Hamilton can stay healthy all year.

Adam Duvall – 70

Adam Duvall is a lot like what I remember of the sluggers in the 1980s: boppers with low batting averages, low on-base percentages and a bucketful of RBI.

Now, my memories might not match reality closely (a quick bit of research suggests my memory should appreciate the value of Google and baseball-reference.com), but as a hitter, Duvall fits well in the class of players like Joe Carter, Steve Balboni, Ron Kittle and Gorman Thomas. When he’s at the plate, he’s not up there to finesse the ball or work the pitcher. He’s up there to mash.

When it comes to mashing, he does a darn good job.

The Reds left fielder has just two full seasons in the big leagues, and in those two seasons he’s averaged 32 home runs and 101 RBI. He’s the first right-handed batter to hit 30 homers in back-to-back seasons with the Reds since George Foster did it in three straight in the late 1970s.

He’s also one of just six players to have 70 or more extra-base hits in each of the last two seasons, joining the Rockies’ Nolan Arenado, Cubs’ Kris Bryant, Red Sox’ Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez (on Diamondbacks and Tigers last season) and Diamondbacks’ Paul Goldschmidt.

He’s only the ninth Red to reach 70 extra-base hits in consecutive seasons along with Ted Kluszewski, Frank Robinson, Lee May, Tony Perez, Foster, Adam Dunn, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce. If he manages to reach that 70 extra-base hit mark again in 2018, he’d join Robinson as the only Reds hitter to do it in three straight seasons.

Duvall may never hit for a high average or post a superior on-base percentage, but if he keeps on mashing from the middle of the lineup, he may be just what the Reds need in that spot.

Scott Schebler – 46

Manager Bryan Price has been open about using a rotation in the outfield as he tries to get at-bats for all four of the group of Duvall, Hamilton, Scott Schebler and Jesse Winker. When Hamilton is out of the lineup, Schebler is most likely to man center field on defense. With an even division of playing time, Schebler would get around 40 games in center, but given Hamilton’s injury history, it’s not unreasonable to think that Schebler could grab a few more than that.

If Schebler manages to get into at least 46 games in center field – assuming he doesn’t become the everyday center fielder – he’d be the first Red to play that many there without it being his primary position since Wily Mo Pena. Pena played 46 games in center and 51 in right field in 2004.

Pena was a large man – considerably bigger than Schebler – but he turned out to be rather nimble in center field. In fact, over his career, Pena rated better defensively in center than he did in right field, by a large margin according some metrics.

If Schebler somehow tops Pena’s total number of games in center field, then you have to go back to 1991, the year Billy Hatcher had 53 games in center field and 83 games in left field. Hatcher split time with Eric Davis in center in both 1990 and 1991 as Davis battled injuries both seasons. Having Hatch made it much easier for the Reds to weather Davis’ injuries, just as they hope Schebler will allow them to use Hamilton’s bat a little more judiciously.

It’s probably unlikely that Schebler will get quite that many games in center field as Hatcher did, but if it happens, it’s nice to know that he’s got a coach on the staff who has handled that role.

Jesse Winker – .350

Winker impressed just about everybody during his short stint with the Reds in 2017. The rookie batted .298/ .375/.529 in 137 plate appearances and demonstrated why he had been named the 2015 Minor League Hitter of the Year for the Reds organization.

He’s continued to tear the cover off the ball this spring, leaving many fans yearning for Winker to be in the lineup every day in the outfield.

If he does get a chance to play every day, Winker will likely be a different kind of hitter than the Reds have seen in their outfield lately. Winker has demonstrated during his minor-league career an ability to get on base year after year. His career .398 on-base percentage in the minors is impressive, even if you don’t take into account that Winker was young for each level he’s played.

If Winker can post an on-base percentage of even just .350 over the course of the season, he’d be only the third Cincinnati outfielder to top that mark (min 400 PA) since Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. left in 2008.

Everyone remembers the amazing season by Shin-Soo Choo in 2013 in which the Reds center fielder posted a stupendous .423 OBP. Fewer may remember Jay Bruce’s tease in 2010 when the right fielder set a career high .353 on-base rate.

Those are the only two times in the last eight seasons in which a Reds outfielder has crossed the .350 OBP plateau. In those eight seasons, Cincinnati outfielders have a collective .314 OBP, only topping the Seattle Mariners’ dismal .311 OBP.

It seems likely that Winker can top that .350 mark, and it’s certainly something the outfield could use.

(Top image:Billy Hamilton, right, and Adam Duvall by Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports)