INDIANAPOLIS — Independent wealth. High-quality candidates. An open seat with no incumbent.
It’s all led the six Republicans vying to become Indiana’s next governor to shell out a staggering $35 million in campaign spending, making it the most expensive race in state history.
The amount of money is eye-popping, but it isn’t surprising, explained Elizabeth Bennion, a political scientist and director of the American Democracy Project at Indiana University South Bend.
The seat is open for anyone to take because Gov. Eric Holcomb maxed out the two-term limit set for the position. That has attracted a slate of candidates with a record of winning elections, including U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and former Indiana Attorney General Curtis Hill.
Two former directors of the Indiana Economic Development Corporation, Brad Chambers and Eric Doden, are millionaire businessmen who have mostly self-financed their campaigns through personal wealth.
With Democrats struggling to win any state races in recent elections, the GOP candidates are all willing to spend big to win the primary and immediately become the presumed victor in the General Election, Bennion noted.
“All of that means that we see a sort of arms race of money right now,” she said. “There's just more money there to spend, and people are willing to spend it for the possibility of leading the state.”
BUYING NAME RECOGNITION
What might be even more remarkable than the historic amount of spending, though, is how little impact it seems to be having on voters, Bennion argued.
Chambers has spent $6.7 million so far this year— the most of any candidate— yet his poll numbers still remain in the single digits, according to the most recent State Affairs/Howey Politics Indiana poll taken the first week of April.
The same holds true for Doden, who has spent $5.2 million this year after receiving $3 million in donations from his parents. His poll numbers dropped by 2 percentage points in April when compared with an IndyPolitics.org/Crossroads Public Affairs poll taken in March.
“One thing that you can take away from this is just having a lot of money and self-financing doesn't translate into votes,” said Greg Shufeldt, a political scientist at the University of Indianapolis.
Why is so much money having so little impact? One reason, he said: Mike Braun.
The senator entered the race with years of appearances on national TV and an endorsem*nt from former President Donald Trump. That exposure has built up huge name recognition that’s allowed him to remain the strong frontrunner the entire race and far outpace his competitors.
Braun led with 44% in the most recent April poll. Crouch came in a distant second with 10%.
Spending millions on TV ads and radio commercials usually works to gain name recognition, Bennion explained. The issue in this primary race is that the top four candidates are all shelling out lots of money at the same time, cancelling out any potential impact of those dollars.
“If they’re all just equally spending money, voters are seeing these competing messages for all of these candidates, and they're not sure what to make of it,” she said. “They often will default to the candidate they think they know best, and that is all helping Sen. Braun.”
‘MONEY IS NOT EVERYTHING’
The record amounts of spending on Indiana’s state and federal races isn’t likely to let up, Shufeldt argued. As campaigning and politics grow increasingly expensive, more independently wealthy Hoosiers are likely to run.
That playbook has proved to work for both Braun and Trump, who used their projected business acumen and wealth to propel them to victory despite having no prior political experience.
“Having independently wealthy people or millionaires run for office is not new,” Shufeldt said. “But considering the success that Donald Trump has had … more independently wealthy people will identify with that and be like, ‘Oh, yeah, I could do this.’”
That trend is a double-edged sword, he argued. On one hand, ballooning campaign costs could keep good candidates with little cash on hand from running. On the other hand, candidates with independent wealth don’t need to spend time raising money and can instead focus on voters, Shufeldt said.
Bennion agreed campaign costs are likely to climb, especially if more self-financed candidates join races. But in the end, she argued, it's name recognition— not money — that is the surest way to win elections in Indiana.
“It's striking that despite the candidates collectively spending $20 million this year, you still have a majority of Republicans who don't know who Chambers is, or the other candidates,” she said. “Money is not everything.”
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